Mongolia | Zaisan Tolgoi | Ninth of the Nine Nines | Ерийн дулаан болно

The ninth and last of the Nine-Nines—nine periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather—began on March 3. This last Nine is Ерийн дулаан болно: the time when warm weather starts, signaling the end of winter. We did have a warm spell, with temperatures up in the mid 20sºF / –6ºC in the afternoon, but this morning it was back down to Minus 30ºF / –34ºC and more cold weather is expected over the weekend. But in the afternoons my finely tuned olfactory organs detect a whiff of spring in the air, so we can start looking forward to the next big event in Zaisan Tolgoi, the Appearance of the First Wild Flower. 

And speaking of big events, in case you have not noticed the Earth Has Been Rocked Off Its Axis by the earthquake in Chile. This happens to coincide with the book I am now reading:

It cannot be said we are not living in exciting times!

Mongolia | Zaisan Tolgoi | Seventh of the Nine-Nines | Doviin Tolgoi Borlono

The seventh of the so-called Nine-Nines—nine periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather—began on February 14, which coincidentally was the first day of the Male Iron Tiger Year here in Mongolia. The actual moment of the New Moon was 10:52 a.m. on the 14th, so according to some interpretations the New Year began then. The Seventh of the Nine-Nines is Doviin Tolgoi  Borlono, the “time when the tops of the hills become brown.” Around the beginning of the year it was still going down to the Minus 20sºF / –28sºC at night.  It has warmed up a bit since then but I have not actually seen any brown hilltops yet. Yesterday it got up to 18ºF / –7º C in the afternoon and I did see some puddles of water along the road where the sun was hitting hard—a precursor of the eighth of the Nine-Nines—the “time when puddles appear on the ground”—which begins on February 23. Expect some real changes in the weather around the Full Moon on March 1.

This should provide a bit of relief from the disastrous winter experienced in some parts of Mongolia. According to Some Accounts more than two million head of livestock have died already. The only good news is that some parts of the country seem to have escaped the worst of the winter onslaught. Recent visitors to Khamariin Khiid in Dornogov Aimag and Sukhebaatar Aimag report that livestock losses in those areas have been no worse than usual.

Mongolia | Sixth Nine-Nine | Zuraasan Zam Garna

The sixth of the so-called Nine-Nines—nine periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather—began on February 5th. This is Zuraasan Zam Garnai, the Time When the Trail of the Road Appears. This description would seem to indicate a slight warming from the previous Nine-Nines, a time when well-traveled trails become free from ice and snow. Indeed, on the night before the first day of this Nine-Nine, the temperature did not get below 0ºF / –18ºC for probably the first time this year. We did, however, get three or more inches of snow here in Zaisan Tolgoi that night, along with extreme winds. Three of the windows in my hovel blew open during the night and the next morning I had little inch-high snow drifts on my wool carpets. Over 400 People Were Lost or Trapped in the snow storm. Since then temperatures have plunged, going down into the Minus 30sºF every night. So the trails have definitely not reappeared. And the Forecast for Tsagaan Sar, the Lunar New Year, on the 14th, is not much warmer. This has been a gruesome winter. Reportedly 1.8 million head of livestock have died so far, and the number is expected to rise significantly. Figures of 20 million have been tossed around, more than half of all livestock in Mongolia, but if this happens it might as well be the Apocalypse for Mongolia. As mentioned before, I am unable to leave Zaisan Tolgoi at the moment so I cannot report on what is going on in the countryside. There is a YouTube Video: Nomads Face Hunger Crisis.

Mongolia | Fifth Nine-Nine | Tavisan Budaa Khöldökhgui

The Fifth of the Nine-Nines—nine periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather—begins today. This is Tavisan Budaa Khöldökhgui, the time when “Cooked Rice Cannot Be Frozen.” I must admit I really don’t understand the definition of this period. It seems to me that cooked rice would be frozen at any temperature below freezing, and we can certainly expect colder temperatures than that during the last week of January and beginning of February. Anyhow, the Fourth of the Nine-Nines was supposed to be coldest of the Nine-Nines, and the rest of the country is still reeling from the cold snap:  Extreme Weather Threatens Mongolians with Hunger and Poverty. Over one million head of livestock have reportedly died. Even wildlife has been affected: Mongolian Antelope Invasion Causes Alarm in Russia. True, it was up to 14ºF / Minus 10ºC yesterday afternoon, but Tsagaan Sar is coming up on the 14th of February and we often have really frigid weather for that. So there may be little if any relief in store for the countryside any time soon. I wish I could get out and see for myself what is happening, but unfortunately I am unable to travel at the moment. Maybe I will have some updates from the countryside around Tsagaan Sar.

Mongolia | Dönön Ükhiin Ever Khöldöne | Killer Winter

The Fourth of the Nine-Nines, known as Dönön Ükhiin Ever Khöldöne—Time When Four Year-Old Cows’ Horns Freeze—began on Monday, January 18. This is supposed to be the coldest of the Nine-Nines, periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather. On Monday, however, it was an incredibly balmy 14ºF / Minus 10ºC at three in the afternoon, probably the highest temperature of 2010. This morning things are back to normal:  Minus 33°F / -36 °C at 6:00 a.m.

This is turning out to be a Killer Winter. The UB Post:

Official figures indicate that approximately 90 percent of the country is suffering from zud  conditions, with snowfall reaching between 20-120 centimeters. The average temperature in northern Mongolia has dropped to -35 degrees Celsius, with temperatures in the rest of country ranging between-17 to -22 degrees Celsius. So far, the coldest temperature of -47 degrees was recorded in Uvs Province. As of 16 January 2010, a total of 198 sums in 19 provinces are suffering from severe weather.

According to estimates by the Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), a total of 786,639 heads of livestock have perished, 89 percent of which belong to the ten worst affected provinces. The total loss of livestock is approximately 17 per cent of the estimated 43.6 million heads of livestock in the country. Some five people died during a recent snowstorm.

Xinjiang Province of China, just south of western Mongolia, has also been hammered, According to the NYT:

Closed roads and delayed flights left thousands of travelers stranded Tuesday following blizzards and extreme cold that killed four people and affected 1.6 million others in northwestern China, a government spokesman said. Snowstorms delayed 122 flights in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang region, on Monday, leaving more than 4,000 passengers stranded, and blocked roads from nine avalanches stranded more than 1,000 passengers in the region, according to a Urumqi government spokesman surnamed Wang. Like many Chinese officials he declined to give his full name. Four people had died because of the bad weather, Wang said Tuesday. He did not give details.Rescue workers were evacuating thousands of rural residents to safer ground at lower altitudes because of the latest storm front, expected to last through Wednesday and plunge temperatures to minus 45 degrees (minus 43 Celsius), Wang said.

In neighboring Mongolia, an official appealed for help from the international community as his country battles the most severe winter it has seen in three decades.

I have several friends in Urumqi but I have not heard from any of them for months, since internet access Remains Cut Off to Xinjiang following the Upheavals there last July. The last I heard all internet cafes were closed and all common email services like hotmail.com were blocked.

Mongolia | 3rd of the Nine Nines | Gurvan Ükhrii Ever Khöldönö | Earthquake

The Third of The Nine-Nines began on January 9. Gurvan Ükhrii Ever Khöldönö is the nine-day period of Winter when the horns of three year-old cows freeze. This period is supposed to be colder than the First of the Nine Nines and the Second of the Nine Nines. So far this has not been the case. A couple days ago it was Minus 20ºF / –28ºC at 7:00 a.m. and this morning  Minus 31°F / -35 °C at 7:00 a.m. On January 3rd, during the Second of the Nine Nines, temperatures fell to a marrow-chilling Minus 44ºF / –42ºC. But there is a New Moon in two days, on the 15th, so we can expect colder weather.

On the First Day of the 3rd of the Nine-Nines, January 9, there was  also an earthquake in Mongolia. In Dundgov Aimag the quake measured 5.6 on the Richter Scale. In Ulaan Baatar it measured 3.5. Most people I talked to in Ulaan Baatar itself claimed not to have felt it. In Zaisan Tolgoi I definitely felt it while sitting in my Scriptorium. It was not a sharp jolt-type quake but rather the shaking bowl-full-of-jello variety, lasting six or seven seconds. I was just about to bolt for the door when it finally stopped. A book or two may have wobbled on the shelves.

Earthquakes are not common in Mongolia—at least compared to places like Alaska, for instance, where bars serve a free round after every trembler—but when they do occur they tend to be monsters. The Gobi-Altai Quake, also known as the Ikh Bogd Uul Quake, of December 4, 1957,  was  “one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes,”  according to the USGS.

When I visited Ikh Bogd Uul in 1998 I was told by local herdsmen that a day or two prior to the quake marmots which should have been soundly hibernating at that time of the year suddenly emerged from their holes and starting running around in a panic. Then the quake hit.

Ikh Bogd Uul (mountain) in Bayankhongor Aimag. An immense landslide caused by the quake can be seen just right of center. The sheared-off side of the mountain can be seen above the landslide.

Scarp just west of Ikh Bogd Uul created by the 1957 Quake

Mongolia | Zaisan Tolgoi | Second of the Nine-Nines | Khorz Arkhi Khöldönö

Update 01/05/10 / 8:00 a.m.

Update 01/04/10 / 7:30 a.m.

Another Magical Moment! This is real Khorz Arkhi Khöldönö weather!

I mentioned earlier that the First of the Nine-Nines—the Nine-Nines being nine periods of nine days each, each period characterized by a certain type of winter weather—started on the day of the Winter Solstice, which occurred here in Mongolia on December 22. The Second of the Nine Nines, according to the admittedly outdated and outmoded Gregorian calendar which unfortunately seems to hold much of the world in its thrall (I prefer the Lunar Calendar myself), began on December 31. Known as Khorz Arkhi Khöldönö, this is the time when twice-distilled homemade Mongolian arkhi (vodka) freezes. As you will recall, the first of the Nine-Nines was the time when regular, or once distilled, arkhi freezes. As this indicates, the second period should be colder than the first, since twice distilled arkhi obviously has a much higher alcohol content. This morning at 7:30, however, it was a relatively balmy Minus 20°F / –29°C compared to Minus 40ºF / –40ºC back on December 25th. The Second of the Nine-Nines does not end until January 8th, however, and we could well have another cold snap before then. 

Mongolia | Zaisan Tolgoi | Magical Moment | Nermel Arkhi Khöldönö

This morning at 7:34 a.m we reached that Magical Moment when the Fahrenheit and Celsius temperature scales coincide. It was Minus 40 degrees according to both. 

As you know, the Winter Solstice occurred on December 21-22 (December 22, 1:47 a.m. in Ulaan Baatar), marking the beginning of Winter. In Mongolia the Winter Solstice also marked the beginning of the so-called Nine-Nines: Nine periods of nine days each, each period marked by some description of winter weather. The first of the Nine-Day periods is Nermel Arkhi Khöldönö, the time when normally distilled Mongolian arkhi (vodka) freezes. It certainly would have frozen last Night. The next Nine-Day Period starts on December 31. Stayed tuned for updates.